The Metals Company’s stock has surged 580 per cent this year, reaching $7.64 as investors position for what could become the world’s first commercial deep-sea mining operation. The Canadian firm’s extraordinary rally reflects growing confidence that regulatory approval for ocean floor mining is within reach, potentially unlocking trillions of dollars worth of critical minerals scattered across the Pacific seabed.

TMC’s breakthrough came in April when it submitted the world’s first application for commercial deep-sea mining permits under US law, bypassing the stalled international regulatory process. The company applied to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under the 1980 Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act, a dormant piece of legislation that suddenly offers the fastest path to regulatory approval for ocean mining.

The timing reflects desperation as much as opportunity. The International Energy Agency warned in May that critical mineral supply chains remain dangerously fragile, with copper facing a potential 30 percent supply shortfall by 2035. Demand for battery metals has doubled in five years and will double again by 2030, yet investment in new mining projects rose just 5 percent in 2024, down from 14 percent the previous year.

TMC’s target lies in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, a vast abyssal plain between Hawaii and Mexico where potato-sized polymetallic nodules carpet the ocean floor. These formations contain the exact metals needed for electric vehicle batteries—nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—in concentrations that often exceed land-based ores. The nodules represent what mining executives call “a battery in a rock,” formed over millions of years through mineral precipitation from seawater.

The company has already processed 2,000 tonnes of nodules in Japan, demonstrating the technical feasibility of extraction and refinement. TMC’s approach involves collecting nodules from depths of 4,000 metres using remotely operated vehicles, then pumping them to surface vessels through a riser system. The process avoids the environmental destruction associated with traditional mining, though critics argue the ecological impact on deep-sea ecosystems remains poorly understood. NOAA’s response has been encouraging for TMC. In July, the agency issued proposed regulations for deep-seabed mining permits, updating rules that have remained essentially unchanged since 1980. The regulatory revision suggests US authorities are preparing to approve commercial operations, potentially making America the first nation to authorise deep-sea mining in international waters.

Geopolitically, China dominates the processing of critical minerals, controlling 70 per cent of global cobalt refining and 90 per cent of rare earth processing. TMC’s Pacific nodules could provide Western nations with an alternative supply source, reducing dependence on Chinese processing facilities and potentially reshaping global mineral markets. Trump administration officials have embraced deep-sea mining as a national security priority, viewing ocean resources as essential for maintaining technological competitiveness. The administration’s willingness to bypass international consensus through unilateral US approval represents a significant shift in maritime resource governance, potentially triggering similar moves by other nations.

For investors, TMC represents a pure play on the critical minerals shortage constraining the energy transition. The company’s Clarion-Clipperton Zone concessions contain an estimated 1.3 billion tonnes of nodules, holding more nickel than all known land-based reserves combined. If regulatory approval proceeds as expected, TMC could begin commercial production by 2027, potentially generating billions in revenue from a resource that has remained untapped for decades.

The 580 percent stock surge reflects recognition that deep-sea mining has moved from science fiction to commercial reality. Whether TMC can execute on its ambitious timeline will determine whether the ocean floor becomes mining’s next frontier or remains an expensive experiment in extracting resources from Earth’s most remote environments.