Capital Risk: The ConocoPhillips Merger and the Concerning Trend Towards Consolidation for US Oil

Capital Risk: The ConocoPhillips Merger and the Concerning Trend Towards Consolidation for US Oil

ConocoPhillips’ $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil boosts scale and free cash flow but prioritizes shareholder returns over innovation. As consolidation deepens in the Permian, U.S. shale grows slower to adapt—shifting power toward OPEC and reshaping global energy dynamics.

In May 2024, ConocoPhillips announced an all-stock acquisition of Marathon Oil valued at approximately $22.5 billion, offering Marathon shareholders 0.255 shares of ConocoPhillips per share. The transaction was completed on November 22, 2024. Marathon brought roughly 390 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day of production and approximately 1.3 billion barrels of proved reserves, with a heavy concentration in the Permian Basin. Rather than meaningfully expanding technological capabilities or geographic diversification, the deal primarily adds scale within existing U.S. shale basins.

It’s unlikely that, with Marathon Oil's newly acquired capital, Standard Oil will continue to push the limits of innovation or new oil discoveries. Compared to other Oil Super Independents like Chevron and ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips has made almost zero investments outside its legacy

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