Johnson & Johnson dropped $14.6 billion on a company whose value rests almost entirely on one psychiatric drug. Caplyta may be a blockbuster, or it may be the most expensive overreach in biotech since 2022. This is a high-risk, high-premium gamble at a moment when Big Pharma can’t afford missteps.

Alkermes just placed a $2.1 billion bet on sleep with a sleep drug few investors saw coming. Alkermes isn’t just buying Avadel, it’s buying time and maybe the future of mental health medicine.

Michael Burry is betting on a rebound, Donald Trump is buying the bonds, and UnitedHealth sits at the center of a quiet wager that could redefine American healthcare.